Latest news from the CERES team

 

1. How much global warming should we expect under "business-as-usual" policies? 

The 2015 international agreement known as “the Paris Agreement” (or “Paris Accord”) states that all signed-up governments agree to limit the amount of human-caused global warming that will occur to less than 2°C (and ideally less than 1.5°C). But, what exactly does this mean? How much human-caused global warming should we expect to occur without this agreement, i.e., if everybody continued “business-as-usual” (BAU)? This was a question we attempted to answer in our 2020 paper "How much human-caused global warming should we expect with business-as-usual (BAU) climate policies? A semi-empirical assessment" published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Energies.

In this post, we summarise the key findings from that paper. We find that the Paris Agreement doesn’t have any practical meaning in terms of actual climate change. Rather, it is an arbitrary paper exercise over hypothetical numbers that don’t reflect the current scientific opinions on climate change. For instance, depending on which scientific studies you base your analysis on, the Paris Agreement could plausibly be kept without any governments doing anything different from business-as-usual until the 22nd century or later.  For more details click here.

 

2. Current climate models get snow cover trends wrong for all four seasons 

In this post, we summarize the main findings of our 2019 peer-reviewed paper, “Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967-2018): A comparison between climate models and observations” that was published in the scientific journal, Geosciences. We show that the current climate models are completely unable to explain actual trends in snow cover for all four seasons. For more details click here.

 

3. Comments on Climate Change Flyers

January 13th, 2021: note to visitors from the Washington Post, New York Times, The Hill, Gizmodo, etc., please see our statement at this link

 

4. Surprising science - There's no such thing as clean energy

October 1, 2020 (Dublin, Ireland; Massachusetts, U.S.A.)

A meticulous new review published in the scientific journal, Energies, conducted by a team of Irish and US-based researchers, including CERES members, raises surprising and unsettling questions about the feasibility and the environmental impacts of the transition to renewable energy sources. Concern for climate change has driven massive investment in new “green energy” policies intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental impacts from the fossil fuel industry.

The world spent US$3,660 billion on climate change projects over the eight-year period 2011–2018. A total of 55% of this sum was spent on solar and wind energy, while only 5% was spent on adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events. For more details, see full press release here.

Relevant journal article: ÓhAiseadha, C.; Quinn, G.; Connolly, R.; Connolly, M.; Soon, W. Energy and Climate Policy—An Evaluation of Global Climate Change Expenditure 2011–2018. Energies 2020, 13, 4839. Link to journal abstract  (open access).