2020 - Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies

Supplementary Materials for:
R. Connolly, M. Connolly, R.M. Carter and W. Soon (2020). How much human-caused global warming should we expect with business-as-usual (BAU) climate policies? A semi-empirical assessment. Energies, 13, 1365. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061365.

2020

Published in "Energies"

Figure S1: Effects on projected future greenhouse gas concentrations (from CO2, CH4 and N2O greenhouse gases) up to 2100 of using the implied projected airborne fractions of the IPCC RCP scenarios (as used for IPCC AR5) compared to using the fixed, empirically-derived estimates as in the paper, Figure S2: Effects of changing the ocean heat uptake efficiency constant, κ, on projected human-caused global warming (from CO2, CH4 and N2O greenhouse gases) up to 2100 under Business-As-Usual conditions for various estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. For comparison the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C targets described under the Paris Agreement (2015) are shown; Figure S3: Effects of changing the estimated Radiative Forcing for a doubling of CO2, F (×2 CO2), on projected human-caused global warming (from CO2, CH4 and N2O greenhouse gases) up to 2100 under Business-As-Usual conditions for various estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. For comparison the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C targets described under the Paris Agreement (2015) are shown. Figure S4: As for Figure 13 in the main article, except only projecting future warming (relative to 2018 values). Projected human-caused global warming (from CO2, CH4 and N2O greenhouse gases) up to 2100 under Business-As-Usual conditions for various estimates of (a) Transient Climate Response and (b) Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. The horizontal axes correspond to years.

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