Updated: Mar 13
January 12th, 2021: It has come to our attention that a temporary draft that was uploaded to this webpage a few days ago (January 8th, 2021) has “gone viral”. Apparently, internet speculation over the contents of that draft has partially inspired a number of “hit piece” articles in the media, including the New York Times, Washington Post, Gizmodo, amongst others.
The original version of this webpage was initially posted as a temporary “mirror” archive of a collection of 10 pdf files from a number of researchers, including one pdf by CERES. No context was provided because its original purpose was simply for sharing via e-mail with some colleagues. The webpage was to allow easy access to the files for discussion purposes. However, given the large media attention that this generated, we have updated this webpage to provide additional information.
In late 2020, CERES was asked by the U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to write a short brochure summarizing the ongoing scientific debate over the role of solar variability on climate change. This brochure was to be aimed at a general non-technical audience, and was to be part of a series of several other brochures by other researchers. We were invited to do so because of the many peer-reviewed scientific articles we have published on the topic and our expertise in the field.
CERES received no funding or reimbursement for this project. We carried it out as we believe communicating science to the general public is important.
The OSTP is a governmental agency, and therefore can, in principle, be influenced by the politics of the administration. However, CERES believes that scientific research works best when it is independent from industry, government, religion, politics or ideology. Therefore, we only accepted the invitation to contribute on the basis that we would be able to write the brochure without taking sides.
The field of climate change and, in particular, debates such as the sun/climate one, have become highly politicized in recent years. We are less interested in the political arguments of these debates, and more interested in the scientific arguments. In our opinion, a big part of this divisive nature is the fact that many articles only present the arguments that the authors agree with. Therefore, we believe that it is important to “steel-man” scientific arguments from all sides. For our brochure, we took this approach.
Although our brochure, and 9 others, were provisionally accepted in December 2020 for publication on the OSTP’s website in mid-January, the project has apparently now been discontinued due to recent developments.
For anybody that is interested, below is the draft manuscript of the brochure that we submitted.
The Sun-Climate Connection, Dr. Michael Connolly, Dr. Ronan Connolly and Dr. Willie Soon
For posterity, we also list below information on the other brochures, although we have removed the pdf files that had been on the temporary page.
Introduction, Dr. David Legates
Are Record Temperatures Occurring More Often in the Conterminous United States?, Dr. John R. Christy, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama-Huntsville
Can Computer Models Predict Climate?, Dr. Christopher Essex, Professor of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario
Radiation Transfer, Dr. William Happer, Professor Emeritus of Physics, Princeton University
Climate, Climate Change and the General Circulation, Dr. Anthony R. Lupo, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri
Hurricanes and Climate Change, Dr. Ryan N. Maue, Private Sector Meteorologist, Atlanta GA
Is There a “Climate Emergency”?, Dr. Ross McKitrick, Professor of Economics, University of Guelph
Systematic Problems in the Four “National Assessments” of Climate Change Impacts on the United States, Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, Senior Fellow, Competitive Enterprise Institute
The Faith-Based Nature of Human Caused Global Warming, Dr. Roy W. Spencer, Principal Research Scientist, University of Alabama-Huntsville