top of page

New study suggests global warming could be mostly an urban problem

Updated: Oct 3, 2023



A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases.


The study also suggests that the solar activity estimates considered in the most recent reports by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) likely underestimated the role of the Sun in global warming since the 19th century.


It is well-known that cities are warmer than the surrounding countryside. While urban areas only account for less than 4% of the global land surface, many of the weather stations used for calculating global temperatures are located in urban areas. For this reason, some scientists have been concerned that the current global warming estimates may have been contaminated by urban heat island effects. In their latest report, the IPCC estimated that urban warming accounted for less than 10% of global warming. However, this new study suggests that urban warming might account for up to 40% of the warming since 1850.


Source: Maps taken from NOAA Climate.gov.


The study also found that the IPCC’s chosen estimate of solar activity appeared to have prematurely ruled out a substantial role for the Sun in the observed warming.


When the authors analysed the temperature data only using the IPCC’s solar dataset, they could not explain any of the warming since the mid-20th century. That is, they replicated the IPCC’s iconic finding that global warming is mostly human-caused. However, when the authors repeated the analysis using a different estimate of solar activity – one that is often used by the scientific community – they found that most of the warming and cooling trends of the rural data could actually be explained in terms of changing solar activity.


The lead author of the study, Dr. Willie Soon, of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES-Science.com) described the implications of their findings,

“For many years, the general public has been assuming that the science on climate change is settled. This new study shows that this is not the case.”

Another author of the study, Prof. Ana Elias, the Director of the Laboratorio de Ionosfera, Atmósfera Neutra y Magnetosfera (LIANM) at the Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina, explained:

“This analysis opens the door to a proper scientific investigation into the causes of climate change.”

This study finds similar conclusions to another study that was recently published in a separate scientific peer-reviewed journal, Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics. This other study involved many of the same co-authors (led by Dr. Ronan Connolly, also at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences). It took a different approach to analysing the causes of climate change – using an additional 25 estimates of solar activity and three extra temperature estimates.


 

For media inquiries, please contact Dr. Ronan Connolly (Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences) at ronan@ceres-science.com.


 

Links to both studies mentioned:

  • W. Soon, R. Connolly, M. Connolly, S.-I. Akasofu, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, A. Bianchini, W.M. Briggs, C.J. Butler, R.G. Cionco, M. Crok, A.G. Elias, V.M. Fedorov, F. Gervais, H. Harde, G.W. Henry, D.V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D.R. Legates, A.R. Lupo, S. Maruyama, P. Moore, M. Ogurtsov, C. ÓhAiseadha, M.J. Oliveira, S.-S. Park, S. Qiu, G. Quinn, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, J. Steele, L. Szarka, H.L. Tanaka, M.K. Taylor, F. Vahrenholt, V.M. Velasco Herrera and W. Zhang (2023). "The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data", Climate, 11(9), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090179. (Open access).

  • R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, C.J. Butler, R.G. Cionco, A.G. Elias, V. Fedorov, H. Harde, G.W. Henry, D.V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D.R. Legates, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, V.M. Velasco Herrera, H. Yan and W.J. Zhang (2023). "Challenges in the detection and attribution of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature trends since 1850". Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 23(10), 105015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e. (Open access).


27,288 views20 comments

20 comentários


Test

Curtir

PoorPeter -
PoorPeter -
28 de set. de 2023

I have been saying this all along. What do you think happens on blacktop surfaces like parking lots, roofs, and roadways? Then add to that heat and reflectivity of buildings in a concentrated area, ambient heat in the urban area increases. This is not the place to make temperature measurements for a regional analysis. CO2 and natural gas use has very little, if anything, to do with climate change. So, I think it is timely to have the politicians, public, and the whole hoi palloi (classic Greek meaning the many) revise and make current their climate concerns. The world is not ending today.

Curtir

Lewis Loflin
Lewis Loflin
20 de set. de 2023

The problem is this subject is so abstract for the public we have no idea what is going on. All I know is decades of failed climate "end of the world" predictions. My study of earth science and historical records show no indication of what is happening today is worse than the past. In fact the human condition is far better than at any time. This has become about politics and money and it seems those with agendas have hijacked this entire issue.

Curtir
PoorPeter -
PoorPeter -
28 de set. de 2023
Respondendo a

I am a geologist who has mapped sedimentary basins and reconstructed paleo-deposition environments from the rock record. I am of the same opinion. CO2 has such a minor influence on our global climate that it would not even be measurable. Other factors are a more significant influence. Those factors are seldom stated by anyone political or otherwise, yet they are well known in the geophysical community. One would have to wonder who is driving this hysteria and why at such a high cost?

Curtir

Dr. Ronan Connolly
Dr. Ronan Connolly
04 de set. de 2023

For anybody who is interested in reading the full articles themselves, you can find links below:



Both articles tackle the same problem of the detection and attribution of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures, but in different ways. As mentioned in the post above, both studies reach similar conclusions.


Readers who are interested in a deeper dive into the problems of urbanization bias and…


Curtir
PoorPeter -
PoorPeter -
28 de set. de 2023
Respondendo a

When I was a very young man, in high school, I had the great fortune of working on a research project with Dr. Roger Burns at MIT's Earth and Planetary Science Department. The very first thing Dr Burns taught me, and I have followed this instruction throughout my life is, if data is suspected to have been corrupted, then throw it out. Here is a very classic example of that. Urban data must be eliminated from the analysis because it is an aberration of the actual data distribution. It is not real and not representative. It by no means should be contoured into the planetary data. A separate study could be made of urban temperatures above the planeta…


Curtir

Robert G
Robert G
04 de set. de 2023

Serious mistakes found in recent paper by Connolly et al.”Should scientists rely on calculations we know are inaccurate? We strongly believe no: errors should be corrected. In our opinion, this is crucial not just for success in science, but for the credibility of science. Our position is that clearly the Connolly et al. approach is nonsense, there is no evidence for the paper’s main claim and it should be corrected or retracted. Go to realclimate.org for the full article written by Mark Richardson, Research Scientist in the Aerosol and Clouds Group at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Curtir
mick daniels
mick daniels
02 de out. de 2023
Respondendo a

Clearly the comments of Robert G are complete and utter nonsense as proven in your reply

Curtir
bottom of page